Tuesday, June 25, 2013

OUT OF CONTROL

Before my marathon predicting gets too out of control here, I need to take a step back and calm myself down. At the end of my last post I mentioned that my goal marathon pace is creeping closer and closer to 3 hours. Well, that statement got me thinking about my past marathons, the races leading up to them and how well the McMillan calculator did of predicting.


If, for example, I run a 1:26:38 half marathon and McMillan predicts that I’ll run a 3:02 marathon, AND I actually go out and run a 3:02 marathon, that’s awesome! However, what does history tell me?

Looking at my last 6 marathons or so, every single one of them was 5-7 minutes slower than what the calculator predicted. As an example, one year I ran a 15K in August that predicted a 3:01, but in October I ran 3:06. So, if my latest half marathon currently predicts a 3:02, based on history it really means I’m in 3:08 shape.

Now I’m wondering if there’s something missing from the Pfitz plan that I typically follow. Is there something I could add into my routine that will get me more in-line with the McMillan calculator? Or is this just normal for some runners? Anyone else out there experience similar results?

Long-time readers may know I’ve run a lot faster than I did on Saturday, so maybe you’re wondering why I’m perhaps overly excited. I mentioned that this is my fastest half in three years. But what really stands out is comparing my MPW between now and then. Here’s my weekly mileage for the 6 weeks leading up to my 1:26:08 in 2010; 64, 72, 77, 51, 80, 80. The 6 weeks before this year’s 1:26:38 were; 42, 40, 44, 35, 41, 35.

I know there’s more to training than just a comparison of weekly mileage, but frankly I was shocked to see the differences; three years older, 44% less miles and only 30 seconds slower. I think where this could really payoff is in the middle of August when I usually start getting the running blahs. At least that’s what I’m hoping for.

4 comments:

Thomas said...

Your MacMillan predictions are interesting, because exactly the same keeps happening to me. My MacMillan times are very accurate from the 5k to the half, but my full marathons are consistently 5 minutes slower than my predicted times, and it does not seem to matter what training plan I follow (Pfitz, Lydiard, Canova); each time I get by marathon times down, my other times have already gone down to keep that 5-minute difference intact.

I DO know a couple of runners who manage to run their predicted MacMillan times in marathons, but I think the majority does not manage it.

Chad said...

Thomas, thanks for the feedback. I kind of figured it that maybe that's just my "style". Some people are fast twitch people and some are endurance people. I can't believe calculator works for everyone the same way.

Chad said...

Thomas, thanks for the feedback. I kind of figured it that maybe that's just my "style". Some people are fast twitch people and some are endurance people. I can't believe calculator works for everyone the same way.

Double said...

I think the better estimation is double your half time and add 10 minutes.