I actually felt pretty good during this morning’s 10 mile run. I still kept the pace easy, but my legs and lungs felt fine. Weather was perfect; 45-50, mostly calm, sunny. I like it. I think I’ll order some of that for Duluth on June 16th.
I’m trying to think if there’s anything in running that’s more fickle than confidence. It’s really an amazing “animal”. We all want it, but we don’t really know how to get it. We can’t fake it or force it. It just sort of shows up one day. For me, that day was today. Even though I ran well on Saturday, I wasn’t confident throughout the entire race. The days following I was really wiped out and trying to recover. Today was the day when it occured on me, “I’m feeling really fit.” I had an extra spring in my step – even though I was just running an easy pace. Now I just have to maintain it for 4.5 more weeks.
I’m also pondering my marathon goal. It seems only logical that if my half marathon converts to a 2:52:33, that maybe I need to adjust my goal time. If I do run a 2:55 will I be happy or will I be pissed because I didn’t “go for it”. Obviously, a lot of that depends on the circumstances on race day. However, given optimal conditions, what should I shoot for? Right now I’m leaning towards keeping 2:55 as my goal; 1) It’d be a 3-minute PR. 2) In the past I’ve had converted times that were below what I actually ended up running. 3) I think I can still go out in 1:27:00 – 1:27:30 and end up in the 2:52 – 2:53 range. Again, 4.5 more weeks to think about it. I may convice myself that this is my chance to take a shot at the low 2:50s. These things don't come along every day.
Quote of the day;
“I’ve seen them training nowadays. If you’d seen me training with Cerutty you’d have been frightened.” – Herb Elliot, comment to Steve Ovett’s coach
It's different for everyone, but experience has told me that my calculated times are always a bit optimistic. I usually add a few minutes to a predicted marathon time to come up with a realistic goal. If I ever ran your half marathon time, I guess 2:55 would be my target marathon time.
ReplyDeleteThomas, I'm they same way. However, sometimes I wonder if my marathon times are "off" because I don't run as aggressively for marathons as I do other distances.
ReplyDeleteI see many people go out feeling it's not aggressive when indeed it is. I'd rather see someone behind goal pace the first few miles rather than 10 seconds up. One is easily persueded into thinking this is a breeze and stays there. We know, we've all done it.
ReplyDeleteBetter to "be around" 2:55 pace and just stay there, taking care of the other intangibles like hydration and fueling which do eat a wee bit of time if doing properly.
How many reports do we have to read about people who felt decent then suddenly for no apparant reason had issues:
-Cramping
-Not my day
-Sudden fatigue
-Pace fell off 15 seconds
You want to get around 15-16 in check. You've bid your time and now the work starts....literally. It gets harder. No kidding. In my opinion, this is were you really let your training work for you. Your tiring, but you have to resist the urge to hit the button you come pre-programmed with which says, "begin working harder." Stay in that zone as long as you can. Monitor the pace per mile. You want to get to 20-21 (a scant five miles) without issuing the final charge. I don't care if you have dropped 10-15 seconds a mile at this point you cannot risk going that early.
When you are 5-6 miles out you need to take stock in the situation and execute. You will be working very hard to get near pace. There is no plan past 23-24. Over compensate in every department, release the hounds, Katy bar the door, etc.
Finish and look back saying....that was a hell uva lot a work for a sub 2:55, but I did go by a lot of people like Grant thru Richmond.
2:55 sounds like a stretch but reasonable PR to go for. Then again, why not target 2:53 and see what happens? What do you have to lose? Good luck in TCM. I'll be tracking your training and looking for tips.
ReplyDeleteDouble, good advice as usual. I'm pretty sure my personality keeps me from being too aggressive early on.
ReplyDeleteThe nice thing about 2:55 vs 2:53 is that I can go out at 2:55 pace through 16 and still come back and run 2:53, if I'm feeling good.
Ryan, why do you think 2:55 is a stretch? Based on a 1:21:49 half, every calculator I've seen says 2:52 - 2:53. Besides that was my fastest half (by 1:15) in the last 5 years. So dropping from 2:58 to 2:55 doesn't seem like a stretch.
If it were a stretch, why would I target 2:53? I think that's where LOTS of people get into trouble. "I feel good, I'll just run a little faster." They adjust their goal on the fly and it comes back to bite them. I think even 10 seconds per mile too fast can have huge negative implications later in the race. In the marathon, you need to have a really good idea as to what kind of shape your training has left you in.